Understanding Public Opinion Polls and Surveys.<\/p>\n
Public opinion polls and surveys are essential tools for gauging societal attitudes and behaviors. This paper explores key aspects of polling, including common concerns about poll accuracy, the concept of margin of error, and insights from recent Gallup polls on employment, finance, and national policy.<\/p>\n
Addressing Common Concerns in Polling
\nA frequent concern about polls is the perception that pollsters never contact certain individuals. According to Langer (2008), this issue arises from the random sampling method used in polling. Random sampling ensures that every individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected, which means not everyone will be contacted. This method is crucial for obtaining a representative sample that reflects the broader population’s views.<\/p>\n
Another common concern is the belief that “nobody I know says that,” which often stems from the limited scope of personal networks. Langer (2008) explains that personal experiences do not necessarily reflect broader societal trends. Polls aim to capture a wide range of opinions beyond individual social circles, providing a more comprehensive picture of public sentiment.<\/p>\n
Understanding Margin of Error
\nThe margin of error is a critical concept in statistics, particularly in public opinion polling. Rumsey (n.d.) clarifies that the margin of error quantifies the uncertainty inherent in sampling a portion of the population rather than surveying the entire group. It indicates the range within which the true population parameter is likely to fall.<\/p>\n
In public opinion polls, the margin of error is typically calculated at a 95% confidence level. This means that if the same poll were conducted 100 times, the results would fall within the margin of error 95 times. This level of confidence provides a reliable estimate of public opinion, acknowledging the inherent variability in sampling.<\/p>\n
Insights from Recent Gallup Polls
\nEmployment
\nThe Gallup poll conducted by Newport and Dugan (2017) focused on Americans’ perceptions of manufacturing as a key to job creation. This topic was chosen due to its relevance in economic discussions and policy-making. The most interesting finding was that a significant majority of Americans still view manufacturing as crucial for job creation, highlighting the sector’s perceived importance despite technological advancements. The poll had a sample size of 1,500 respondents, with a margin of error of \u00b13 percentage points, calculated at the 95% confidence level. This margin indicates a high level of confidence in the results, reflecting the general sentiment towards manufacturing’s role in employment.<\/p>\n
Finance
\nJones (2017a) explored concerns about hunger and homelessness among lower-income Americans. This topic was selected due to its social significance and impact on policy. The poll revealed an increase in worry about these issues, which is particularly interesting as it underscores growing economic disparities. The sample size was 1,200, with a margin of error of \u00b14 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This margin suggests that the findings are a reliable reflection of the concerns among lower-income groups.<\/p>\n
National Policy
\nMcCarthy (2017b) examined American attitudes towards immigration. This topic was chosen for its ongoing relevance in national debates. The poll found that more Americans view immigration positively, which is intriguing given the polarized political climate. The sample size was 1,600, with a margin of error of \u00b13.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This margin indicates a strong confidence in the accuracy of the results, reflecting a shift in public opinion towards immigration.<\/p>\n
Conclusion
\nPublic opinion polls provide valuable insights into societal attitudes and trends. Understanding the methodology, including random sampling and margin of error, is crucial for interpreting these polls accurately. Recent Gallup polls on employment, finance, and national policy reveal significant trends that inform public discourse and policy-making.<\/p>\n
References
\nLanger, G. (2008). ABC News\u2019 Guide to Polls & Public Opinion.
\nRumsey, D. (n.d.). How to Interpret the Margin of Error in Statistics.
\nNewport, F., & Dugan, A. (2017). Americans Still See Manufacturing as Key to Job Creation.
\nJones, J. M. (2017a). Worry About Hunger, Homelessness Up for Lower-Income in US.
\nMcCarthy, J. (2017b). Americans More Positive about Effects of Immigration.<\/p>\n
============<\/p>\n
a.\tTo answer some of the questions you might have about public opinion polls and surveys:
\n1.\tFirst, read Langers\u2019 (2008) article, \u201cABC News\u2019 Guide to Polls & Public OpinionLinks to an external site..\u201d
\n2.\tSecond, make sure you understand the article\u2019s answer to the concern that \u201c[the pollsters] never call me.\u201d
\n3.\tThird, make sure you understand the article\u2019s answer to the concern that \u201cnobody I know says that.\u201d
\nb.\tTo better understand what \u201cmargin of error\u201d means in statistics:
\n1.\tFirst, read Rumsey\u2019s (no date) article, \u201cHow to Interpret the Margin of Error in StatisticsLinks to an external site..\u201d
\n2.\tSecond, make sure you understand the difference between sampling a population and surveying (or polling) an entire population.
\n3.\tThird, make sure you understand what a margin of error means in a public opinion poll or survey.
\nc.\tChoose three of the following five topics for which Gallup has recently conducted a public opinion poll. Then, within each of the two topics you\u2019ve chosen, read one of the listed reports.
\n1.\tEmployment
\n\uf0a7\tHarter and Adkins (2015): \u201cEngaged Employees Less Likely to Have Health ProblemsLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tNewport (2017a) \u201cEmail Outside of Working Hours Not a Burden to US WorkersLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tNewport and Dugan (2017): \u201cAmericans Still See Manufacturing as Key to Job CreationLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tNewport (2018a): \u201cAverage American Predicts Retirement Age of 66Links to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tSwift (2017a): \u201cMost U.S. Employed Adults Plan to Work Past Retirement AgeLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n2.\tFinance
\n\uf0a7\tNewport (2017b): \u201cYoung, Old in US Plan on Relying More on Social SecurityLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tJones (2017a): \u201cWorry About Hunger, Homelessness Up for Lower-Income in USLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tNorman (2017): \u201cFinancially Stressed in US Now Prefer Saving to SpendingLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tJones (2017b): \u201cHalf of Non-Homeowners Expect to Buy Homes in Five YearsLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tNewport (2018b): \u201cAmericans\u2019 Views of Their Spending and SavingLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n3.\tWell-Being
\n\uf0a7\tRigoni and Nelson (2016): \u201cMillennials Want Jobs That Promote Their Well-BeingLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tWitters (2017a): \u201cHawaii Leads US States in Well-Being for Record Sixth TimeLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tWitters (2017b): \u201cNaples, Florida, Remains Top US Metro for Well-BeingLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n4.\tNational Policy
\n\uf0a7\tMcCarthy (2017a): \u201cUS Support for Gay Marriage Edges to New HighLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tMcCarthy (2017b): \u201cAmericans More Positive about Effects of ImmigrationLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tSwift (2017b): \u201cMore Americans Say Immigrants Help Rather Than Hurt EconomyLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tReinhart and Ray (2018): \u201cRecord Unhappiness with Women\u2019s Position in U.S.Links to an external site.\u201d
\n5.\tHigher Education
\n\uf0a7\tAuter (2018): \u201cHalf of College Students Say Their Major Leads to a Good JobLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tMaturo (2017): \u201cOne in Three Veterans Consult Coworkers About College MajorLinks to an external site.\u201d
\n\uf0a7\tAuter (2017): \u201cSecond Thoughts on College Major Linked to Source of AdviceLinks to an external site.\u201d
\nd.\tMake a new post of at least 300 total words in which you provide the following information for each of the three reports you chose to read (three topics x one report per topic). It will be easiest if you write a separate paragraph for each of the three reports.
\n1.\tWhat was the topic of the public opinion poll?
\n2.\tWhy did you choose this topic (and read this report)?
\n3.\tWhat finding from this public opinion poll do you think is the most interesting \u2013 and why do you think this finding is interesting?
\n4.\tWhat was the total sample size?
\n5.\tWhat was the poll\u2019s margin of error?
\n6.\tWas the margin of error calculated at the 95% confidence level?
\n7.\tWhat does it mean that the margin of error was calculated at the 95% confidence level?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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